Smart Thermostat Savings: What You Can Really Expect
How much a smart thermostat saves, which settings matter, heat pump and C-wire compatibility, and how utility demand-response programs pay you.
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How much can you save by turning the heat down while you sleep or are out? Enter your usual setting, how far and how long you set it back, your winter weather and heating cost.
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Turning the heat down 8°F for 8 hours a day could trim about 9% of heating costs, roughly $107 a year. With a heat pump, use small setbacks so backup heat does not kick in.
Estimate only. Uses the assumptions explained below.
| Yearly heating cost | |
|---|---|
| No setback | $1,200 |
| With setback | $1,093 |
| Year | Running total |
|---|---|
| 0 | -$0 |
| 1 | $107 |
| 2 | $213 |
| 3 | $320 |
| 4 | $427 |
| 5 | $533 |
| 6 | $640 |
| 7 | $747 |
| 8 | $853 |
| 9 | $960 |
| 10 | $1,067 |
| Year | Energy savings | Net cash flow | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 (Up-front cost) | — | -$0 | -$0 |
| 1 | $107 | $107 | $107 |
| 2 | $107 | $107 | $213 |
| 3 | $107 | $107 | $320 |
| 4 | $107 | $107 | $427 |
| 5 | $107 | $107 | $533 |
| 6 | $107 | $107 | $640 |
| 7 | $107 | $107 | $747 |
| 8 | $107 | $107 | $853 |
| 9 | $107 | $107 | $960 |
| 10 | $107 | $107 | $1,067 |
| Total | $1,067 | $1,067 | $1,067 |
Save up to 3 scenarios (for example, with and without a rebate) and compare them side by side.
Your heating bill depends on how much warmer you keep the inside than the outside, and for how long. Lower the inside temperature for part of the day and you shrink that gap, so the house loses less heat. The calculator uses a simple degree-hour method.
Average gap = normal indoor setting − average winter outdoor temperature
Setback used = smaller of (degrees turned down, average gap)
Share saved = (setback used × hours per day) ÷ (24 × average gap) (capped at 100%)
Yearly savings = share saved × yearly heating cost
In plain words: the “degree hours” you remove each day, divided by the degree hours your home normally needs each day, gives the share of heating you avoid.
The method assumes heat loss rises in step with the indoor-outdoor gap, that the house cools to the setback temperature quickly, and that warming back up costs no more than the heat saved. These are simplifications. Real homes take time to cool, so actual savings can be lower than the full setback suggests.
The result lines up with official guidance. DOE’s Energy Saver guide says turning the thermostat down 7°F to 10°F for 8 hours a day can save as much as 10% a year on heating and cooling.
The default home keeps 68°F, has an average heating-season temperature outside of 38°F, and spends $1,200 a year on heat.
A colder home keeps 70°F through a winter that averages 30°F outside, and spends $1,800 a year on heat. The household sets back only 5°F, but for 10 hours a day while everyone is at work and school.
A smaller setback saves a smaller share. In this colder climate, the same degrees are also a smaller part of a bigger heating load, though the larger bill keeps the dollar savings close.
| Setback habit | What it does |
|---|---|
| 7°F–10°F for 8 hours, overnight or away | DOE’s recommended range; up to about 10% a year |
| Smaller setback, a few degrees | Smaller savings; gentler for heat pumps |
| Longer setback, whole workday plus night | More savings, if the home is empty or everyone is asleep |
| No setback | No change in heating cost |
The percent is the share of your heating cost the setback could save. The dollar figure applies that share to the heating cost you entered. If you enter your whole energy bill instead of just heating, the dollars will be too high.
Every hour and every degree adds up, so a setback you will actually keep is worth more than an ambitious one you will drop. A programmable or smart thermostat makes it automatic. Our smart thermostat savings guide explains settings, wiring and utility programs.
Climate. Space heating and air conditioning together made up 52% of household energy use in 2020, according to EIA’s survey data. In mild climates, a setback is a bigger share of a smaller bill. In cold climates, it is a smaller share of a bigger bill.
Equipment. Furnaces and boilers handle setbacks well. Heat pumps are the exception, as above; our heat pump cost and savings guide explains how backup heat works. If your system is slow to warm the house, schedule the recovery to start earlier so rooms are warm when you need them.
House tightness. A setback trims a share of whatever heating your home needs. Sealing leaks and adding insulation shrink that need in the first place, around the clock. See our guide on how to lower your energy bill for the best upgrades in order.
Cooling. The same idea works in summer: set the thermostat higher while you are out. This calculator covers heating only.
To find out what your heating costs per unit of heat across fuels, try the heating fuel cost comparison calculator. If your energy bills are a big share of your income, the energy burden calculator puts them in context.
This is a simplified degree-hour estimate. It does not model how slowly your house cools and warms, sun through windows, heat from people and appliances, or how your heating system behaves at different loads. It overstates savings for long setbacks in tight, well-insulated homes that never reach the lower temperature. This is an educational estimate, not advice.
DOE says you can save as much as 10% a year on heating and cooling by turning your thermostat down 7°F to 10°F for 8 hours a day in fall and winter. With this calculator's defaults, an 8°F setback for 8 hours a day, a 68°F normal setting and a 38°F average winter, the estimate is about 9% of heating cost, or about $107 on a $1,200 yearly heating bill.
It runs longer in the morning, but you still come out ahead. A house loses heat faster when it is warmer inside compared with outside. While it is cooler, it loses less heat, and that saved heat is more than the furnace uses to recover. The exception is a heat pump that turns on electric backup heat to recover quickly, which can wipe out the savings.
Only with care. DOE advises against manually setting back a heat pump if it causes backup electric-resistance heat to come on, because that heat is more expensive. Use a smart or programmable thermostat made for heat pumps, which raises the temperature slowly or limits backup heat. Smaller setbacks of a few degrees are usually safer for heat pumps.
It depends on your climate and how long the setback lasts. In a mild climate, where the indoor-outdoor gap is small, each degree is a bigger share of your heating. In a cold climate, the same degree is a smaller share. Try a 1°F change in the calculator with your own outdoor temperature to see what one degree is worth for you.
Use the average outdoor temperature during the months you heat, not the coldest night. Your local National Weather Service office or NOAA climate data list monthly averages; average the heating months together. If you know your heating degree days, a rough shortcut is 65°F minus the degree days divided by the number of heating days.
A smart thermostat saves money by making setbacks automatic, so you do not forget. ENERGY STAR says certified smart thermostats save about 8% of heating and cooling bills on average, or about $50 a year. If you already set back reliably by hand or with a programmable thermostat, a smart model may add less. Either way, the setback is what saves energy.
For most healthy adults, a modest setback is fine. Keep the home warmer for babies, older adults and anyone with health conditions, and do not let it drop so low that pipes could freeze. A setback that leaves people bundled up and uncomfortable is not worth the savings. Ask a doctor about safe indoor temperatures if someone in the home is frail or has a heart or breathing condition.
This calculator gives educational estimates, not quotes, tax advice or an eligibility decision. Results depend on the inputs and assumptions shown above. How we research
How much a smart thermostat saves, which settings matter, heat pump and C-wire compatibility, and how utility demand-response programs pay you.
Ways to lower your energy bill, ranked from free habit changes to low-cost fixes and big upgrades, with official savings figures and where to find help.